Where Vietnam Stands in Southeast Asia: Size, Income and Growth

Over the past decade, Vietnam has been closing the gap with its larger neighbours in Southeast Asia. The IMF's October 2026 outlook marks two crossings: Vietnam's GDP per person passing Indonesia's in 2026, for the first time, and its economy passing Thailand's in US dollars by 2028. Both are correct, but they measure different things. Here is the full picture, and what it means beyond the headlines.

Three ways to measure an economy

• Total size in US dollars (nominal GDP): everything an economy produces in a year, at market exchange rates.
• Total size at local prices (purchasing power parity, or PPP): the same output, adjusted for what money buys in each country.
• GDP per person: total size divided by population. It is the closest of the three to how people live.

Vietnam ranks differently on each. Among Southeast Asia's six largest economies, the IMF's 2026 forecasts look like this:

• Total size, US dollars: $542 billion, 5th, just behind Malaysia.
• Total size, local prices: 2.06 trillion international dollars, 2nd, after Indonesia.
• GDP per person, US dollars: $5,259, 4th, after Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.
• Growth: 8.4%, 1st.

Vietnam and Indonesia cross on GDP per person

The IMF puts Vietnam's GDP per person at $5,259 in 2026 and Indonesia's at $5,153. In 2025 Indonesia was still ahead, at $5,078 against $4,829. Indonesia has nearly three times Vietnam's population, and its economy is still about 2.7 times larger.

Two things are worth knowing. The comparison is in US dollars, so exchange rates play a part. And sources differ on the year: the World Bank already had Vietnam slightly ahead in 2025, at $5,066 against $5,060. Both show the same thing: the two countries cross around 2025 and 2026, and Vietnam is growing faster.

Vietnam nears Thailand on economy size

At local prices, the IMF expects Vietnam's economy to pass Thailand's in 2026: about 2.06 trillion against 1.98 trillion international dollars. That makes Vietnam the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia on this measure, after Indonesia. Vietnam's statistics office says the crossover already happened in 2025.

In US dollars, Thailand is still larger: $599 billion against Vietnam's $542 billion in 2026. The IMF expects Vietnam to pass Thailand in 2028, at $638 billion against $616 billion. Thailand and Indonesia keep growing too; Vietnam is growing faster, from a lower base.

Why Vietnam is growing faster

Vietnam grew 8.02% in 2025. In the first nine months of 2026 it grew 9.01%, and the third quarter of 2026 came in at 9.95%, the fastest pace since 2022. The IMF expects 8.4% for 2026, the highest among Southeast Asia's six largest economies, against a government target of at least 10%.

Three things are behind it:

• Factories. Foreign companies registered $50.4 billion of new investment in the first nine months of 2026, up 76% on a year earlier, and disbursed $21.1 billion, the most in five years. About 83% of that went into manufacturing. Samsung, already Vietnam's largest foreign corporate investor at over $23 billion, plans a chip-testing plant in Thai Nguyen worth up to $4 billion.
• Exports. Exports reached $434 billion in the first nine months, up 24.5%.
• Public spending. The 2026 public investment plan is about VND1,014 trillion (around $39 billion). Vietnam had more than 3,000 km of expressways in 2025 and plans 5,000 km by 2030. Long Thanh International Airport near Ho Chi Minh City is targeted to open for commercial flights at the end of 2026, and the city's second metro line broke ground in January 2026.

What the numbers don't say

• Vietnam is still a middle-income country. At $5,259, GDP per person is well below Thailand ($8,372) and Malaysia ($15,981). Even the IMF's 2031 forecast for Vietnam, $7,609, is below Thailand's level in 2026. The World Bank moved Vietnam into its upper-middle-income group in July 2026.
• These are forecasts. Figures for 2026 onward come from the IMF's October 2026 outlook, and the IMF revises them twice a year.
• There are risks. An extra 12.5% US tariff on many Vietnamese goods took effect on 24 July 2026. Energy prices rose sharply in 2026, and inflation averaged 4.52% in the first nine months, slightly above the 4.5% target.

What it means for Overseas Vietnamese

Growth also shows up in hiring. In a 2026 salary survey by Robert Walters, up to 80% of employers said they struggle to find the right candidates. Pay for AI, data and fintech roles was expected to rise 15 to 25% in 2026.

Rules for Overseas Vietnamese have also changed. Since July 2025, the amended nationality law lets former Vietnamese citizens apply to regain their nationality, and the new international financial centre in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang offers visas of up to 10 years for experts and their families.

OV members can read a deeper version of this piece in the OV Library, on what these numbers mean for careers, pay, visas and property. OV is a global network of 1,000 Vietnamese professionals in 50+ cities. Apply to join: joinov.com

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