Vietnam, from $500 to $5,000

From the editor

Many of us Overseas Vietnamese grew up with a picture of Vietnam as always behind, always catching up. The numbers in this issue show how far that picture is from today. In one generation, Vietnam went from one of the poorest countries in the world to upper-middle income. The work is not finished, and growth has not reached everyone in the same way.

There is a lot ahead. The next step needs better skills, stronger companies and higher-value work. Overseas Vietnamese can help here, working alongside people in Vietnam as operators, investors and builders.

Quang Do, Editor · Founder, Overseas Vietnamese

The big story: Forty years of growth, and the 2030 goal

Income per person (GDP divided by population) is not what a typical person earns, but it shows how far an economy has come. In 1986, when the Đổi Mới reforms opened Vietnam's economy, it was under $500. In 2025 it was $5,066 by the World Bank's count, and in July 2026 the World Bank moved Vietnam into its upper-middle-income group. The IMF, whose figures are used in the chart below, expects $5,259 this year, up 8.9% in dollars. (World Bank, Nation Thailand)

The government's goal is $8,500 per person by 2030, on the way to high income by 2045. The World Bank's high-income line is about $14,000 of national income per person. Reaching $8,500 in four years takes about 13% growth a year in dollars. The IMF expects about 8%, which gets Vietnam to $7,105 in 2030. (Nation Thailand, Koran Jakarta)

Vietnam's GDP per person, nominal US$. 2026 to 2031 are IMF forecasts. The 2030 target is the government's.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026, via Nation Thailand and Koran Jakarta. 2016 and 2031 from the IMF.

So far the growth has come largely from factories, exports and public spending on roads and other infrastructure, and factory investment is still at a record: foreign companies registered $54.85bn in the first ten months of 2026, the most since 2009 (registered money is pledged, not yet spent). Faster growth from here depends more on what each worker produces. Output per worker reached about $9,809 in 2025, up 6.8% after inflation, and 29.2% of workers hold a degree or vocational certificate. (VietnamPlus, Viet Nam News)

Employers already feel the gap. In a 2026 Robert Walters salary survey, most employers in Vietnam said they struggle to find the right candidates, and pay for AI, data and fintech roles was expected to rise 15% to 25%. For anyone thinking about moving to Vietnam, hiring or investing here, these skilled roles are where experience from abroad is most useful.

Household surveys give a closer picture of daily life. Average income was about VND 6 million (about $230) per person a month in 2025: VND 8.4 million in Hanoi, but just under VND 4.2 million in the northern mountain provinces. The gap between cities and the countryside is narrowing. Poverty is still much higher among ethnic minorities, at 27% in 2020 on the World Bank's $3.20-a-day line, than among the Kinh, Vietnam's largest ethnic group. (Dtinews, World Bank)

Chart of the week: Poverty in Vietnam since 1992

Share of people in Vietnam living on less than $3 a day, at 2021 prices.

Source: World Bank Poverty and Inequality Platform, via Our World in Data. The survey method changed in 2010, so part of the drop between 2008 and 2010 comes from the new method.

In 1992 more than half of Vietnam lived below this line. Thirty years later it was under 2%. On the World Bank's higher line for countries like Vietnam, $4.20 a day, poverty fell from 14% in 2010 to under 4% in 2025. Fewer people are poor, but many households still live close to the line (World Bank).

Also this week

The State keeps control of the biggest banks

Vietnam has four big State-controlled banks (Vietcombank, BIDV, VietinBank and Agribank) and a few dozen private ones, such as Techcombank, VPBank and ACB. A new plan, Decision 2054, keeps the State's stake in Vietcombank and BIDV at 65% or more until 2030. Today it holds about 75% of each. Foreign investors who want large stakes are looking at private banks. Reuters reported that Japan's SMBC wants 20% of VPBank, and that BNP Paribas and KB Kookmin want at least 15% of Techcombank. Foreigners can usually own up to 30% of a bank, or up to 49% if the bank helps rescue a weaker one. (VCCI, VIR)

The US could add tariffs over piracy and fake goods

By 29 November, the US decides whether to act on its probe into piracy and fake goods in Vietnam, and new tariffs are one option. The US is Vietnam's biggest export market. In April the US named Vietnam a "priority foreign country", its most serious category, the first country given that label in 13 years. Vietnam has since ordered a nationwide crackdown. Tesla and Samsung's US unit oppose new tariffs, while US steel and solar groups want them. Since July, Vietnamese goods already pay a 12.5% US tariff after a separate probe. (Reuters, AFP)

Inflation runs just above target

Inflation averaged 4.57% over the first ten months of the year, just above the government's 4.5% target. Keep it in mind when you compare pay offers. (VietnamPlus)

Clearer rules on investing through someone else's name

Some investors put a business or property in a Vietnamese person's name to get around ownership limits. That is legally risky for both sides. Lawmakers are discussing safeguards against it in the changes to the Investment Law, with a vote due on 20 November. If you invest with a local partner, follow the vote. (VnExpress)

What changes for you

New rules for people who live, work or invest in Vietnam, and for anyone planning to move here.

For foreign employers and their staff: Foreign employers must post jobs and report hires from 15 November

Decree 371 requires foreign employers of Vietnamese workers to publish openings on vieclam.gov.vn, another licensed job site or their own website, and to report each new or ended contract within 10 working days. (VnExpress International)

What to do: ask HR whether roles are posted and who files the 10-day notices. For your own options, see working in Vietnam as an Overseas Vietnamese.

For employers and employees: Minimum wage rises from 1 January 2027

Decree 399 raises monthly minimums by VND 310,000 to 390,000 depending on the region, and the Region I hourly minimum to VND 27,400. Employers cannot cut overtime, night-work or other statutory benefits. (Báo Chính phủ)

What to do: employers should review contracts and collective agreements before 1 January.

For investors in listed stocks: New rules for borrowing and lending shares, from 16 November

From 16 November, investors can borrow and lend listed shares through VSDC, Vietnam's central securities depository, for example to settle a trade on time. Borrowers must put up collateral worth at least 110% of what they borrow. The rules are in Circular 145. (Viet Nam News)

What to do: if you trade Vietnamese stocks, ask your broker whether and when it will offer this.

Coming up

• 8 to 11 November: General Secretary and President Tô Lâm visits Japan.
• 15 November: Decree 371 duties for foreign employers start.
• 16 November: Circular 145 on securities lending takes effect.
• 20 November: National Assembly vote on the Investment Law changes.
• 29 November: US deadline to conclude its intellectual property probe.